فصلنامه حکمرانی جمعیت و خانواده

فصلنامه حکمرانی جمعیت و خانواده

تحلیل تأثیرات اقتصادی و اجتماعی گذار جمعیتی در ایران: مطالعه با استفاده از روش فراترکیب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی با اصالت

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده پیامبر اعظم دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)، تهران، ایران.
2 دکتری تخصصی و پژوهشگر، گروه جمیعت‌شناسی، دانشکده پیامبر اعظم(ص)، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه جمیعت‌شناسی، دانشکده پیامبر اعظم(ص)، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)، تهران، ایران
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل پیامد های اقتصادی واجتماعی گذارجمیعتی در ایران با استفاده از روش فراترکیب انجام شده است.تمرکز اصلی پژوهش برشناسایی مولفه های کلیدی اقتصادی واجتماعی وتببین تاثیرات آن ها برساختارجمیعت کشور بود. پژوهش ازنظر هدف ،کاربردی وازنظر روش،فراترکیب است. داده ها از75 مقاله مرتبط با موضوع ، که در بازه ی زمانی 1390 تا 1402 از پایگاه های علمی معتبر مانند مگیران ، مرکز اطلاعات علمی جهاددانشگاهی (SID) ، گنج ایرانداک ، گوگل اسکالر، پاب مد(Pub Med) و تایپست (Typest)باکلید واژه های فارسی «گذارجمیعتی »،«ابعاد اقتصادی گذارجمیعتی»،«ابعاد اجتماعی گذارجمیعتی »، «پیامدهای سالمندی جمیعت » وانگلیسی Demographic Change،Population Dynamics ، Fertility Decline and Economic Impact، Aging Poppulation Challenges جمع آوری شده اند. پس از غربالگری 13 مطالعه به روش نمونه گیری هدفمندانتخاب و با استفاده ازنرم افزار مکس کیودا (MAXQDA) و الگوی هفت مرحله ای ساندلوسکی وباروسو تحلیل شدند. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که پیامدهای اقتصادی شامل افزایش هزینه های مراقبت های بهداشتی ودرمانی ، فشار برصندوق های بازنشستگی وتامین اجتماعی ،کاهش نیروی کار ورشداقتصادی ، نیاز به سرمایه گذاری در زیرساخت ها می باشند.پیامدهای اجتماعی شامل کاهش بعد خانوارو رشد خانواده های محدود به والدین ، کاهش تعاملات بین نسلی وافزایش سالمندان تنها ،تغییرات درنگرش ها وارزش هانسبت به خانواده و فرزند آوری می‌باشند.نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که گذارجمیعتی به ویژه سالمندی سریع جمیعت چالش های قابل توجهی را درابعاد اقتصادی واجتماعی ایجاد می‌کند.بنابراین برای مدیریت این چالش ها ،تدوین سیاست های جامع ومتناسب با شرایط مناطق مختلف کشور ضروری است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of the Economic and Social Impacts of Demographic Transition in Iran: A Study Using the Meta-Synthesis Method

نویسندگان English

میر behrooz 1
Mohamad hosein shadmanfar 2
Mohamad hosein Alipoor 3
1 PhD student in Demography, Faculty of the Great Prophet, Imam Hussein University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD and Researcher, Department of Demography, Faculty of the Prophet (PBUH), Imam Hussein (PBUH) University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of the Prophet (PBUH), Imam Hussein (PBUH) University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

This study aims to analyze the economic and social consequences of demographic transition in Iran using a meta-synthesis approach. The research focuses on identifying key economic and social components and explaining their impacts on the country's population structure. In terms of purpose, it is an applied study, and methodologically, it follows a meta-synthesis design.

Data were collected from 75 relevant articles published between 2011 and 2023, sourced from reputable databases such as Magiran, Scientific Information Database (SID), IranDoc, Google Scholar, PubMed, and Typest. The search utilized Persian keywords like "demographic transition," "economic dimensions of demographic transition," "social dimensions of demographic transition," and "consequences of population aging," as well as English keywords including Demographic Change, Population Dynamics, Fertility Decline and Economic Impact, and Aging Population Challenges. After screening, 13 studies were purposively selected and analyzed using MAXQDA software and Sandelowski and Barroso’s seven-stage meta-synthesis model.

Findings indicate that economic consequences include rising healthcare costs, increased pressure on pension and social security systems, labor force decline, slowed economic growth, and the need for infrastructure investment. Social consequences involve shrinking household sizes, a rise in single-parent families, reduced intergenerational interactions, growing elderly isolation, and shifting attitudes and values toward family and childbearing.

The results highlight that demographic transition, particularly rapid population aging, poses significant economic and social challenges. Therefore, developing comprehensive policies tailored to the diverse conditions of different regions in Iran is essential to address these challenges effectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Demographic transition
economic
social
meta composition
Population aging

Smiley face

Referenc
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دوره 2، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 6
شماره پیاپی6، فصلنامه زمستان
زمستان 1403
صفحه 37-51

  • تاریخ دریافت 21 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 22 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 10 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 دی 1403