Governance of Population and Family

Governance of Population and Family

Analysis of the Economic and Social Impacts of Demographic Transition in Iran: A Study Using the Meta-Synthesis Method

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors
میر behrooz 1
Mohamad hosein shadmanfar 2
Mohamad hosein Alipoor 3
1 PhD student in Demography, Faculty of the Great Prophet, Imam Hussein University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD and Researcher, Department of Demography, Faculty of the Prophet (PBUH), Imam Hussein (PBUH) University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of the Prophet (PBUH), Imam Hussein (PBUH) University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the economic and social consequences of demographic transition in Iran using a meta-synthesis approach. The research focuses on identifying key economic and social components and explaining their impacts on the country's population structure. In terms of purpose, it is an applied study, and methodologically, it follows a meta-synthesis design.

Data were collected from 75 relevant articles published between 2011 and 2023, sourced from reputable databases such as Magiran, Scientific Information Database (SID), IranDoc, Google Scholar, PubMed, and Typest. The search utilized Persian keywords like "demographic transition," "economic dimensions of demographic transition," "social dimensions of demographic transition," and "consequences of population aging," as well as English keywords including Demographic Change, Population Dynamics, Fertility Decline and Economic Impact, and Aging Population Challenges. After screening, 13 studies were purposively selected and analyzed using MAXQDA software and Sandelowski and Barroso’s seven-stage meta-synthesis model.

Findings indicate that economic consequences include rising healthcare costs, increased pressure on pension and social security systems, labor force decline, slowed economic growth, and the need for infrastructure investment. Social consequences involve shrinking household sizes, a rise in single-parent families, reduced intergenerational interactions, growing elderly isolation, and shifting attitudes and values toward family and childbearing.

The results highlight that demographic transition, particularly rapid population aging, poses significant economic and social challenges. Therefore, developing comprehensive policies tailored to the diverse conditions of different regions in Iran is essential to address these challenges effectively.
Keywords
Demographic transition
economic
social
meta composition
Population aging
Subjects

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  • Receive Date 12 August 2025
  • Revise Date 13 September 2025
  • Accept Date 02 October 2025
  • Publish Date 21 December 2024